MIAMI — Miami-Dade $1-million-and-up transactions surged triple digits versus pre-pandemic 2019 transactions as total pending home sales and showing appointments rose again for the second consecutive month, according to February 2023 statistics released today by the MIAMI Association of Realtors (MIAMI) and the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) system.
Miami real estate, which posted its second-most total home sales in history in 2022 despite an unprecedented doubling of mortgage rates, continues to see a surge in domestic and international wealth migration. Unlike other parts of the country, the Miami market continues to see price appreciation and sales are on par or above pre-pandemic 2019 transactions.
“Miami real estate continues to outpace national trends,” MIAMI Chairman of the Board Ines Hegedus-Garcia said. “Property prices in Miami continue to rise, albeit at a more modest rate. The region’s real estate market is unique due to the significant number of cash transactions and the high rate of migration. This normalization from the pandemic-fueled era of homebuying indicates that sellers are increasingly open to negotiating contract terms, offering greater flexibility.”
Miami-Dade Luxury Sales Jump Triple Digits Versus February 2019
Miami-Dade luxury ($1-million-and-up) transactions rose 111.5% in comparison to pre-pandemic, from 122 in February 2019 to 258 in February 2023. Comparisons to pre-pandemic are better comps as 2021 and 2022 South Florida sales surged to record highs due to pandemic-fueled homebuying, historic low 2% mortgage rates and other factors.
About 67.1% of Miami-Dade luxury buyers pay all-cash.
Homebuyers from high-tax, high-density states continue to relocate and purchase in South Florida. Florida ranked No. 1 in the U.S. in largest net gain of adjusted gross income (AGI) due to domestic migration, gaining $23.7 billion, according to most recent IRS-SOI migration data.
Miami-Dade’s out-of-state homebuyers with a mortgage earn nearly $100,000 in median household income, according to research by MIAMI REALTORS® Chief Economist Gay Cororaton.
“Current economic and lending conditions are favoring regions with strong real estate market fundamentals like South Florida,” Cororaton said.
The region remains a bargain for prime property ($1M and up) compared to other global cities according to the 2023 Knight Frank Wealth Report. For $1M, homebuyers can purchase 64 square meters of prime property in Miami. That is almost four times more than Monaco (17 square meters), nearly two times more than New York (33) and London (34) and more than Paris, Sydney, Tokyo and more.
Pending Sales and Showing Appointments Rise for Second Consecutive Month
Total pending sales rose 16.9% month-over-month, from 2,288 in January 2023 to 2,674 in February 2023. Pending sales are an indicator of future sales, but it takes up to 40 days for pending transactions to close and not all pending sales end in deals.
Showing appointments in the Southeast Florida MLS, which is owned by MIAMI REALTORS®, increased 1.6% month over month to 237,395 showings in February.
Home sales are sensitive to mortgage rate changes and homebuyers are taking advantage of any rate declines. According to Freddie Mac, the average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage 6.60% as of March 16. That’s down from 6.73% from the previous week but up from 4.16% one year ago.
Miami February 2023 Condo Sales Rise vs. February 2019
Miami February 2023 total sales decreased 39.9% year-over-year, from 2,814 to 1,692, because it’s in comparison to a historic February 2022 and the current market has lower inventory in specific price points and higher rates. In comparison to February 2019, however, Miami February 2023 total sales are only down 2.7%.
Miami February 2023 condo sales increased vs. February 2019, but are down in comparison to last year. Miami existing condo sales decreased 46.6% year-over-year, from 1,807 in February 2022 to 965 in February 2023, due to lack of inventory and rising mortgage rates. In comparison to February 2019, however, February 2023 sales increased 3.3%, from 934 to 965.
Single-family home sales decreased 27.8% year-over-year, from 1,007 in February 2022 to 727 in February 2023 because of its comparison to a historic February 2022 and the current market has lower inventory in specific price points and higher rates. In comparison to February 2019, Miami February 2023 single-family sales are down 9.7%.
South Florida Home Prices, Household Income Rise with Wealth Migration
Miami-Dade County single-family home median prices increased 3.5% year-over-year in February 2023, increasing from $536,000 to $555,000. Miami single-family median prices have risen for 135 consecutive months (11.25 years), the longest running-streak on record. Existing condo median prices increased 2.6% year-over-year, from $380,000 to $390,000. Condo median prices have increased in 136 of the last 141 months.
While local median prices have increased so have local household incomes. Miami and West Palm Beach rank in the top-10 in the U.S. in median homebuyer growth (2019 vs 2021). Miami median homebuyer income grew 16.9% to $104,000 in 2021, and West Palm Beach median homebuyer income is $110,000 via Redfin report.
Home prices are determined by supply and demand. Lower supply and higher demand create higher prices. Inventory for Miami single-family homes (3.8 months) and condos (4.5 months) are low. Also, one of the supports for home prices is rents and rents are up.
Miami Real Estate’s Market Fundamentals Lead the Nation
- Miami prices keep rising (11+ consecutive years of price appreciation) unlike many other major markets and homes keep selling fast (46 days on average).
- Miami is 1 of only 2 U.S. markets forecasted to see price appreciation in 2023 according to Goldman Sachs forecast.
- South Florida ranked No. 1 in the U.S. for most inbound population gains between 2019 and 2022, a 56.2% increase via United States Postal Service change-of-address data.
- South Florida out-of-state driver license exchanges remain up double digits for relocating New Yorkers, Californians, New Jerseyans and more, according to Florida Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles (FLHSMV) data.
- Florida is fastest-growing state for the first time since 1957 (1,142 net new residents per day in 2022 per U.S. Census)
- Miami’s percentage of cash buyers (43%) is significantly higher than the national average (29%). About 67.1% of Miami-Dade luxury buyers pay all-cash.
- Florida ranked No. 1 in the U.S. in largest net gain of adjusted gross income (AGI) due to domestic migration, gaining $23.7 billion, according to most recent IRS-SOI data.
- Broward County and Miami-Dade County ranked No. 1 and No. 2, respectively, in the U.S. for $10M+ sales volume on basis of percentage change from 2019 vs 2022 via Compass
- Global companies continue relocating to Miami, such as Citadel, a multinational hedge fund that manages $57 billion in assets and is developing a $1 billion Miami office tower with plans to have 1,500 employees in 10 years.
- Miami ranked in top-20 in the U.S. for most tech job postings via CompTIA Tech Jobs Report. Tech industry offers some of the highest-paying jobs.
- About 60 companies expanded or relocated to Miami-Dade County in 2021-22, creating 8,000 new direct and indirect high-value jobs with average salary of $97,000, according to Beacon Council.
- South Florida has one of the strongest job markets in the country, with 2% unemployment– lower than the national figure.
Teleworking and Coworking
- Nicknamed the Coworking Capital of the World, Miami saw a 143% increase in demand for flexible office space in 2022 vs. pre-pandemic via The Instant Group.
- Expansion of remote work benefits Miami because if you can work wherever why wouldn’t you want to live in sunny Miami?
- Miami is the No. 1 U.S. market for global buyers. Foreign homebuyers purchased $6.8 billion of South Florida residential properties in 2022, up 34% from $5.1 billion in 2021, according to our 2022 MIAMI REALTORS® Global Study.
Miami-Dade Active Listings Still Near Historical Lows; More Supply Needed
The average year-end Miami annual active inventory since 2008 is 19,537 and active listings at the end of 2022 totaled 10,730. Miami active listings are down 48.7% versus pre-pandemic (year-end 2022 vs. year-end 2019).
Total active listings at the end of February 2023 increased 37.4% year-over-year, from 7,484 to 10,282.
Inventory of single-family homes increased 63.5% year-over-year in February 2023 from 2,212 active listings last year to 3,617 last month. Condominium inventory increased 26.4% year-over-year to 6,665 from 5,272 listings during the same period in 2022.
New listings of Miami single-family homes decreased 20.6% to 1,206 from 1,519 year-over-year. New listings of condominiums decreased 22.7%, from 2,419 to 1,871 year-over-year.
Months’ supply of inventory for single-family homes increased 123.5% to 3.8 months year-over-year, which indicates a seller’s market. Inventory for existing condominiums increased 73.1% to 4.5 months, which also indicates a seller’s market. A balanced market between buyers and sellers offers between six- and nine-months supply.
Nationally, total housing inventory at the end of February was 980,000 units, identical to January and up 15.3% from one year ago (850,000). Unsold inventory sits at a 2.6-month supply at the current sales pace, down 10.3% from January but up from 1.7 months in February 2022.
Miami Real Estate Posts $190.4 Million Local Economic Impact in February 2023
Every time a home is sold it impacts the economy: income generated from real estate industries (commissions, fees and moving expenses), expenditures related to home purchase (furniture and remodeling expenses), multiplier of housing related expenditures (income earned as a result of a home sale is re-circulated into the economy) and new construction (additional home sales induce added home production).
The total economic impact of a typical Florida home sale is $112,500, according to NAR. Miami-Dade County sold 1,692 homes in February 2023 and had a local economic impact of $190.4 million.
Miami total dollar volume totaled $1.4 billion in February 2023. Single-family home dollar volume decreased 26.8% year-over-year to $706.2 million. Condo dollar volume decreased 49.5% year-over-year to $662.5 million.
Miami Distressed Sales Remain Low, Reflecting Healthy Market
Only 0.9% of all closed residential sales in Miami were distressed last month, including REO (bank-owned properties) and short sales, compared to 1.6% in February 2022. In 2009, distressed sales comprised 70% of Miami sales.
Short sales and REOs accounted for 0.1% and 0.8% year-over-year, respectively, of total Miami sales in February 2023.
Miami’s percentage of distressed sales are on par with the national figure. Nationally, distressed sales represented approximately 2% of sales in February, nearly identical to last month and one year ago.
Nearly 36.4% of all Florida Condo Sales Happened in South Florida in February 2023
South Florida (Miami, Broward, Palm Beach) registered 36.4% of all condo sales in Florida in January 2023. For all properties, South Florida had 20.3% of all sales in Florida.
In Florida, closed sales of single-family homes statewide totaled 18,627 in February 2023, down 21.3% year-over-year, while existing condo-townhouse sales totaled 7,665, down 30.2%. Closed sales may occur from 30- to 90-plus days after sales contracts are written.
Nationally, total existing-home sales transactions vaulted 14.5% from January to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.58 million in February. Year-over-year, sales fell 22.6% (down from 5.92 million in February 2022).
The statewide median sales price for single-family existing homes was $395,000, up 2.5% from the previous year, according to data from Florida Realtors Research Department in partnership with local Realtor boards/associations. Last month’s statewide median price for condo-townhouse units was $315,000, up 8.6% over the year-ago figure. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.
Nationally, the median existing-home price for all housing types in February 2023 was $363,000, a decline of 0.2% from February 2022 ($363,700), as prices climbed in the Midwest and South yet waned in the Northeast and West. This ends a streak of 131 consecutive months of year-over-year increases, the longest on record.
Miami Real Estate Attracting Near List Price
The median percent of original list price received for single-family homes was 95.1% in February 2023, down from 98.7% last year. The median percent of original list price received for existing condominiums was 95.7%, down from 97.8% last year.
The median number of days between listing and contract dates for Miami single-family home sales was 46 days, up from 25 days last year. The median time to sale for single-family homes was 85 days, up from 73 days last year.
The median number of days between the listing date and contract date for condos was 45 days, up from 38 days. The median number of days to sale for condos was 82 days, down from 81 days.
Miami Cash Sales 53.6% More than National Figure
Cash sales represented 43% of Miami closed sales in February 2023, compared to 43.9% in February 2022. About 28% of U.S. home sales are made in cash, according to the latest NAR statistics.
Cash buyers are not deterred by rising rates. The high percentage of cash buyers reflects Miami’s top position as the preeminent American real estate market for foreign buyers, who tend to purchase with all cash as well as some moving from more expensive U.S. markets who can buy more with their profits from real estate sales.
Cash sales accounted for 55.9% of all Miami existing condo sales and 25.9% of single-family transactions.
To access February 2023 Miami-Dade Statistical Reports, visit http://www.SFMarketIntel.com
Note: Statistics in this news release may vary depending on reporting dates. MIAMI reports exact statistics directly from its MLS system.
About the MIAMI Association of Realtors®
The MIAMI Association of Realtors (MIAMI) was chartered by the National Association of Realtors in 1920 and is celebrating 103 years of service to Realtors, the buying and selling public, and the communities in South Florida. Comprised of six organizations: MIAMI RESIDENTIAL, MIAMI COMMERCIAL; BROWARD-MIAMI, a division of MIAMI Realtors; JTHS-MIAMI, a division of MIAMI Realtors in the Jupiter-Tequesta-Hobe Sound area; MIAMI YPN, our Young Professionals Network Council; and the award-winning MIAMI Global Council. MIAMI REALTORS represents nearly 60,000 total real estate professionals in all aspects of real estate sales, marketing, and brokerage. It is the largest local Realtor association in the U.S. and has official partnerships with 245 international organizations worldwide. MIAMI has been selected to host the prestigious FIABCI World Congress on June 5-9, 2023. MIAMI’s official website is www.MiamiRealtors.com
Originally published at https://www.miamirealtors.com/2023/03/21/miami-dade-luxury-sales-surge-above-pre-pandemic-2019-transactions-pending-home-sales-and-showing-appointments-rise-for-second-consecutive-month/